特朗普的胜利：国际货币与金融体系的未来

　　原文标题：The Rise of Trump and Its Global Implications – Trump’s Victory: Future of International Monetary and Financial System

　　中文摘要：南洋理工拉惹勒南国际研究院多边主义研究中心助理教授Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit在《特朗普的胜利：国际货币与金融体系的未来》一文中表示，随着特朗普获选下一届美国总统，对于国际金融体系未来的疑问随之响起。中期看来，特朗普的当选将导致抛售和股市动荡。即便是在他确认获胜之前，全球市场已然作出负面反应。由于对特朗普政府经济政策的不确定，全球股市将继续震荡。他的经济团队将由哪些人组成以及谁将制定相关政策几乎完全无人知晓。特朗普的竞选演说甚少涉及货币金融领域，因此，这一领域的不确定性与不可预知性逐渐增大。特朗普声称将采取贸易保护主义政策，与部分国家抗衡，保护美国的就业和利益。美国加强保护主义将使世界经济进一步恶化，这种行为将加剧全球保护主义的趋势，并影响国际金融和货币秩序。全球需求不振和加剧的美国保护主义重叠将导致汇率操纵。在这种情况下，部分国家将更倾向于通过调整汇率加强贸易竞争力，并获取全球市场份额。这样的汇率操控将导致竞争性货币贬值，引发货币战争，摧毁全球贸易、金融和投资流动。而特朗普治下的美国新政府几乎不可能在国际货币金融管理体系中担任领导地位。执行机制的缺失、全球舞台领导力量的缺席，以及美国保护主义引发的一系列影响将使全世界不得不自食其果。（编译：罗婧婧）

　　原文：

　　Synopsis

　　With Trump as the next American president, how will this affect the future of the international financial system? The prospect of future governance looks grim due to the lack of enforcement and leadership at the global level.

　　Commentary

　　NOW THAT Donald Trump has won the United States presidential election and will become the 45th American President, questions abound about the future of the international financial system. In the immediate term his victory will lead to sell-offs and stock market instability. Even before his confirmed victory, the markets around the world had reacted negatively. For example, S&P 500 futures plummeted by 4 per cent and the Nikkei Index plunged by 5 percent.

　　Stock markets would continue to be volatile amidst the uncertainties about economic policies under the Trump administration. It is largely unknown what his economic team will consist of and who exactly would design the policies.

　　Risks of Competitive Devaluation and Currency Wars

　　Unlike trade matters which repeatedly showed up in his campaign rhetoric, the issues of international money and finance was hardly mentioned. Yet, much of the uncertainties and unknowns loom large in this area. Going forward, how would his presidency shape the future of the global monetary and financial system? In terms of governance, what would be its impacts on international monetary and financial cooperation?

　　The consequences are likely to stem from the trade policies the Trump administration would pursue. During his campaign, he pledged to undertake trade protectionism against several countries to protect American jobs and interests by increasing tariffs on products from certain states.

　　Intensifying American protectionism would worsen the world’s economy further. Such action would exacerbate the global trend towards protectionism which could spill over onto the international financial and monetary order. The combination of global sluggish demand and growing US protectionism would concoct a perfect recipe for exchange-rates manipulation.

　　Under such condition, several states would feel more tempted to tinker with exchange rates to boost trade competitiveness and gain an edge in the world’s markets. Such manipulation could lead to competitive devaluation. Currency wars could thus result, ruining the global trade, financial, and investment flows.

　　Can the World be Saved?

　　Risks of competitive devaluation and currency wars beget a bigger issue of governance. For any system to maintain and function smoothly, governance is required. The stakeholders must cooperate with one another on deciding the set of rules which they will abide by. In the Westphalian system, cooperation rarely occurs spontaneously. To achieve collaboration, nation-states need to work together on two main things: making rules and enforcing them.

　　What is daunting is not the fact that the world lacks rules governing currency manipulation, but the fact that the power to enforce such principles on sovereign nations is limited. There have been efforts by international organisations to tackle competitive devaluation at the global level. For example, Article IV of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Agreement contends that each member shall “avoid manipulating exchange rates or the international monetary system in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage over other members”.

　　Likewise, the Group of Twenty (G-20) attempted to address the issue. According to the Communique coined at the Hangzhou Summit in September 2016, the leaders pledged to confirm their “previous exchange rate commitments, including . . . [refraining] from competitive devaluations and . . . [using] . . . exchange rates for competitive purposes”.

　　Would US Lead Again?

　　As stated earlier, governance cannot be accomplished without the agreed rules being adopted or implemented. Unfortunately, the enforcement power of the IMF and G-20 is limited. The Fund’s power to prevent states from adjusting their exchange rates for trade gains is questionable. Admittedly, the Organisation’s influence tends to stem from the conditionalities it imposes upon its borrowers.

　　But if countries do not have borrowing ties with the Fund, it does not have the authority to force states to implement the policies it prefers. As for the G-20, its cooperation is largely on a voluntary basis and formal enforcement mechanisms are absent. This bloc is at best endowed with the power to persuade, which is different from enforcement.

　　Who could fill such enforcement void? Enforcement can occur when a particular nation assumes leadership. Leadership happens when one state coerces or cajoles other countries to adopt and implement the agreed rules and principles. History has taught us so. The US leadership largely contributed to the successful construction of the Bretton Woods System after World War II.

　　Would the Americans take up this role again? It is difficult or even almost impossible to see Washington take a lead in managing international money and finance when the new administration seems to turn its back on the open system.

　　What would the future look like for global money and finance? It is not hopeful. The world is likely to experience more market volatilities and the hanging risks of currency manipulation, competitive devaluation, and possible currency wars. Couple these with the absence of enforcement mechanisms and leadership at the global stage, the world will just have to brace itself for the impact.

责编：周秋田